Qatar brokers ceasefire talks as Gulf states brace for post-midterm U.S. moves

The United States and Israel are currently planning potential strikes on Iran for the period following Tuesday's midterms. In an effort to prevent new attacks, Qatar has led intense mediation efforts over the past 72 hours, leaving the entire Gulf region in a state of high alert.

Qatari officials have kept details of the negotiations private. However, mediators visited Tehran, and an Iranian delegation traveled to Doha during this three-day window. Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian foreign minister, told state media on Saturday that the talks have not yet reached a definitive conclusion. He noted discussions regarding a two-day plan where Iran would cease attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz to allow direct talks between Washington and Tehran to resume.

President Donald Trump addressed the possibility of restarting the war from a Halloween party at Mar-a-Lago. He stated that the administration is not in a hurry to act. Trump claimed that the U.S. has knocked out almost all of Iran's military equipment, manufacturing capabilities, and nuclear sites. He said one or two sites remain but can be destroyed in 10 minutes.

The war began eight months ago when the U.S. and Israel launched a campaign that killed Iran's supreme leader and top military commanders. The conflict also destroyed many Iranian ships and missile production sites. Despite these losses and crippling U.S. economic sanctions, the regime has not toppled, a goal Israel previously stated as its objective. Brent crude oil prices are 60% higher than pre-war levels due to the conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, sent a message to armed forces commanders over the weekend. He instructed that any threat to the country must be met with an immediate response without geographical limitations. Iranian state media interprets this to mean that new U.S. or Israeli attacks would cause greater damage than previous strikes.

In Bahrain, the damage from the war is visible. The small island nation hosts the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet. On the first day of the war, on February 28, Iran struck the 5th Fleet's logistics hub and warehouses. Radar equipment is damaged, and warehouses appear charred and blackened from the highway. The base once housed 8,000 military personnel but now holds fewer than 100.

Abdullatif Al Zayani, Bahrain's foreign minister, spoke at the Manama Dialogue security forum on Saturday. He described missiles and drones fired at Bahrainian civilian infrastructure and U.S. military sites. He noted that Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatened to hit undersea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz if war resumes. Al Zayani compared the cables to a shared artery used as a tool of pressure. Iran previously hit Amazon data centers in the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain during the peak of the conflict.

Gulf Arab states view Iran as a top security threat but remain hesitant to engage in further war. Anwar Gargash, a senior Emirati diplomat, told the summit that the region must use political tools as its main resource. He argued that military solutions would complicate the current scene without providing a quick off-ramp. Saudi Arabia is currently struggling to protect its airports and oil facilities from attacks by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.