Seven tight Senate races could delay chamber control for weeks
Ranked choice voting in two states and narrow margins in seven others mean the final tally may not arrive until after Tuesday night.
By Megan Ivanov ·
The Senate race will be harder to call than the House contest, with seven states posing enough uncertainty to delay a final count for days or weeks. While House control may become clear quickly due to larger margins, the Senate outcome hinges on tight results and complex counting procedures. Two states use ranked choice voting, a process that extends the time required to declare a winner. This structural difference means the House result could be known hours before the Senate majority is confirmed.
Georgia presents a mixed picture for the early evening. Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is expected to defeat Republican Rep. Mike Collins. The governor's race is tighter, pitting billionaire Rick Jackson against former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms. Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger noted that new laws require counties to report results within one hour of polls closing. In South Carolina, the Senate race between Sen. Darline Graham and Annie Andrews is a toss up in national polls, though the Cook Political Report gives Republicans the advantage.
North Carolina and Ohio offer the most critical battlegrounds for Senate control. Former Gov. Roy Cooper faces Michael Whatley in North Carolina, a state Democrats have not won a Senate seat in since 2008. In Ohio, Sen. Jon Husted and former Sen. Sherrod Brown are deadlocked. The governor's race features Democrat Amy Acton leading Republican Vivek Ramaswamy, whose recent attack ad against Acton has generated backlash that could impact both candidates.
By 8 p.m. ET, polls close in more than half the country. Democrats are targeting Maine, where incumbent Sen. Susan Collins faces a late-entry challenge from Troy Jackson. In Florida, the governor's race favors Republican Byron Donalds, while the Senate seat leans toward incumbent Ashley Moody. Seven House seats in Florida are competitive, serving as the first test of the state's redrawn congressional maps. Pennsylvania, which had four competitive House races earlier in the cycle, now shows three of those toss-ups leaning Democratic.
The 9 p.m. ET block includes Arizona, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Texas, and Minnesota. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico challenges Republican Ken Paxton for governor, a race where Talarico may lead early due to mail-in ballots. Kansas and Iowa feature close Senate contests, with Democrat Adam Hamilton challenging Sen. Roger Marshall in Kansas and Democrat Josh Turek challenging Rep. Ashley Hinson in Iowa. Michigan remains a toss-up between Abdul El-Sayed and Mike Rogers, with the outcome potentially signaling a major victory for the progressive wing if El-Sayed wins.
Later closures in the mountain west and Pacific coast could shift the national narrative. Montana's 1st Congressional District is a toss-up between Sam Forstag and Aaron Flint. Nevada's governor's race is a toss-up between Joe Lombardo and Aaron Ford. California's new congressional map, drawn in 2025, has tilted close House races toward Democrats. The final results will depend on the speed of reporting in these western states as the night progresses.
Source: Delaware Public Media
