NPR Poll: 44% Report Steady Finances Ahead of Midterms

The November midterm elections will be defined by a sharp division in the American economy and a historic challenge for the president's party. A new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll released on October 31, 2026, indicates that 44% of Americans say their personal finances have mostly stayed the same over the past year. Another 38% report that their economic situation has worsened. Only 15% said their financial condition has improved.

President Donald Trump, who won the 2024 election on a promise to lower prices, now faces record low approval ratings. Voters are linking his tariffs and the war with Iran to rising costs for goods and energy. The administration also cut domestic spending on Medicaid and other healthcare programs. These factors have angered swing voters and energized the Democratic base.

Historical data suggests the Republicans will struggle to hold onto power. Since World War II, the president's party has gained House seats in only two midterm elections. In years when the president's approval rating falls below 50%, that party has lost an average of 35 seats. Trump's current rating sits in that lower range. When approval is above 50%, the average loss is 15 seats.

Democrats have capitalized on these trends in recent off-cycle elections. They won the 2025 off-year elections and have outperformed expectations in special elections. However, the path to a large victory is not clear. The Cook Political Report lists approximately 30 fewer competitive districts this cycle compared to 2018. In 2018, Democrats gained more than 40 House seats. The smaller number of toss-up races limits the potential for a massive wave.

Redistricting has also altered the math for 2026. An NPR analysis estimates that Republicans gained an advantage of eight seats through redistricting. Trump pressured Republican-led state legislatures to draw maps that favored his party. That gain may be reduced by voting patterns among Latino voters in South Texas. If those voters lean Democratic, the Republican buffer shrinks.

The Senate race remains tight. Democrats are favored to flip control of the House but are in striking distance of taking the Senate, a result that seemed unlikely at the start of the cycle. The outcome will depend heavily on Republican turnout. Trump has campaigned in red states to urge his base to vote. Without high turnout, a one or two seat Democratic gain in the Senate could expand to six or seven.

Polls show that 44% of respondents view their vote as a check on Trump, while 21% see it as a vote for him. Self-identified democratic socialists are highly engaged in this election and strongly disapprove of Trump's job performance. This group may turn out in large numbers to oppose the president, even as internal party debates over future presidential primaries begin to surface.

Election night may not bring a clear verdict. Some key Senate races may remain undecided for days or weeks. A quarter of Republicans in the latest poll said their candidate likely should not accept the results if the race is close. Trump has already prepared for potential claims of fraud, a tactic he used after the 2020 election. Republicans are quietly treating Trump as a liability with swing voters, even as they rely on him to mobilize the base.