Governor's Race: Hochul Widen Gap to 14 Points

Gov. Kathy Hochul is holding a 14-point lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman with less than a week until Election Day. The margin represents an expansion from the 9-point advantage found in Siena University's September survey. This new data suggests the gap is widening rather than closing as the race enters its final stretch.

The trend has been consistent for Hochul over the past month. In September, she led 50% to 41% among likely New York voters. By this week, that figure shifted to a 54% to 40% lead. Siena pollster Steven Greenberg noted that Blakeman is running out of time to close a gap that is growing. He stated, "Heading into the final stretch, Hochul has a 14-point lead, with Blakeman quickly running out of time to close a gap that is growing rather than narrowing."

The poll also captured a shift in sentiment surrounding Mayor Zohran Mamdani. His favorability rating among New York City voters climbed to 69%, up from 60% in September. Statewide, his approval remained relatively stable at 47% favorable. For the first time in her five years as governor, a majority of likely voters now view Hochul favorably, with 51% giving her a positive rating. Her job approval rating also rose to 51% from 48% in the previous month.

Regional breakdowns show distinct patterns. Hochul leads Blakeman 67% to 23% in New York City. The race is much tighter in the downstate suburbs, where she holds a 49% to 47% advantage, and upstate, where she leads 49% to 48%. Among independent voters, Hochul leads 51% to 40%, a reversal from September when Blakeman held a 44% to 39% edge among that group.

The race has become a contest of endorsements. For the second straight month, more voters view President Donald Trump's endorsement as a liability for Blakeman than they view Mamdani's endorsement as a liability for Hochul. Forty-eight percent of voters said the Trump endorsement was a negative for Blakeman, while only 28% viewed it positively. Conversely, 45% viewed Mamdani's endorsement as a positive for Hochul.

Hochul's campaign has capitalized on this dynamic by launching a multimillion-dollar ad campaign. New attack ads began airing Tuesday, accusing Blakeman of supporting Medicaid cuts and aggressive immigration enforcement. The campaign is tying Blakeman closely to Trump, who remains unpopular statewide with 61% of voters viewing him unfavorably. Despite Hochul's lead, 68% of likely voters expect her to win reelection, while 23% expect Blakeman to prevail.

The Siena survey interviewed 807 likely New York voters between October 19 and 22. The margin of error for the results is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. The poll also found Democratic incumbents leading in other statewide races, including Attorney General Letitia James and Comptroller Tom DiNapoli.