Israelis vote Tuesday in closest race since 2023 attacks

Israeli voters go to the polls Tuesday to choose a new government in a race defined by a narrow margin and deep political division. The election follows the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks and the subsequent war in Gaza. No party is currently projected to secure a parliamentary majority of 61 seats in the 120-member Knesset.

A pre-ban poll by public broadcaster KAN projects the opposition alliance will win 52 seats. The pro-Netanyahu bloc is expected to take 50 seats. The remaining seats are projected to go to unaffiliated parties, including the two main Arab-majority lists, Ra’am and the Joint List. Both major blocs have stated they will not form a coalition with the Arab parties for now.

The pro-Netanyahu coalition is led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party. It includes far-right and ultra-Orthodox partners such as United Torah Judaism, Shas, Otzma Yehudi, and Religious Zionism-Zehut. The opposition bloc consists of four Jewish-led movements: Yashar, the Democrats, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Together. These parties are led by former military chiefs, finance ministers, and prime ministers.

Netanyahu faces his first election since the 2023 attacks. He has served as prime minister for more than 15 of the last 17 years. His political future is complicated by corruption charges he has faced since 2019 and an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court. A defeat would leave him more exposed to his ongoing legal trials.

About 7.3 million Israeli citizens are eligible to vote, including approximately 1.2 million Palestinian citizens of Israel. Roughly three million adult Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, and East Jerusalem do not have a say in the election. Recent polling suggests Palestinian citizen turnout could reach 60 percent. If turnout hits 65 percent, Arab parties could win up to 15 seats, which would keep smaller parties out of parliament.

Last month, Israel’s Central Elections Committee voted to bar the Joint List and Ra’am from the race. The top court reversed that decision, allowing the Arab parties to run. The court did require Balad leader Sami Abu Shehadeh to withdraw after he described the October 7 attacks as an important historical event. Joseph Mansour, a former aide to Knesset member Ayman Odeh, noted that a deadlock could allow Netanyahu to remain in office as a caretaker prime minister.