Arab bloc's 19 seats leave Israeli election without a clear winner

Palestinian citizens of Israel cast ballots at a rate of roughly 80 percent on Tuesday, a surge that helped Arab-majority parties secure a historic 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset. This result has left the national election without a decisive outcome as counting nears 90 percent completion. Neither of the two major blocs has reached the 61 seats necessary to form a government.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition is projected to win 53 seats, falling eight short of a majority. His Likud party is on track to be the largest single party with 26 seats and 20.65 percent of the vote. The opposition bloc led by Gadi Eisenkot is expected to take 48 seats, leaving them 13 seats short of the threshold. Eisenkot’s Yashar Party is projected to win 21 seats with 16.16 percent of the vote.

The 19 seats held by Arab-majority parties now sit at the center of coalition math, despite several leaders from both major blocs previously ruling out governing with them. The Joint List, led by Yousef Jabareen, is projected to win 12 seats with 9.14 percent, making it the third-largest party by vote share. Ra'am, led by Mansour Abbas, is on course for eight seats with 6.09 percent, exceeding its internal target of seven. Jabareen stated that change would come through a true and equal Jewish-Arab partnership.

Netanyahu reacted to the preliminary results by calling a government that relies on Arab parties a shame and a disgrace. A Likud statement shared by the Prime Minister claimed the election was stolen by Arab parties. Police and the Central Elections Committee have dismissed those claims. Before the vote, Netanyahu had warned that an opposition victory would mean citizenship for hundreds of thousands of Palestinians, a move he said would signal the end of the Jewish state.

Eisenkot described the race as perhaps the most critical since the founding of the state. On Wednesday, he said the public had voted against Netanyahu and promised to turn that result into a Zionist government. In September, Eisenkot noted he saw no Arab party that accepted his principles. He remains dependent on the Arab-led parties to bridge the 13-seat gap to a majority.

Other parties face mixed results. Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid’s Together party is on course for 12 seats with 9.07 percent. Bennett told supporters in Tel Aviv that the government of October 7 was going home, while Lapid said the Netanyahu bloc had suffered a crushing defeat. Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit is projected to win seven seats with 5.58 percent, less than half of the 15 seats he sought. Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism is on course for six seats with 4.78 percent.

Avigdor Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu is projected to win seven seats with 5.93 percent. Lieberman had predicted on October 15 that the change bloc would reach 61 seats or more. He has since urged patience, saying a much better and more optimistic picture could emerge as counting continues.