Israel election leaves no clear winner as turnout hits 20-year high

Israel’s general election produced no clear winner on Tuesday, leaving the country with a fractured parliament and a reliance on Arab-led parties that most Jewish factions have vowed to shun. With 85% of ballots counted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing bloc and the opposition led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot are nearly tied, leaving the final outcome dependent on a small number of seats and the counting of absentee votes.

Three factors will determine the next government. First, the seat count is razor-thin. Netanyahu’s Likud party and its far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies are projected to win 53 seats in the 120-seat Knesset. Eisenkot’s Yashar party and three other opposition parties are set for 48 seats. Neither bloc has the 61 seats required to form a majority. Second, Arab-led parties are on course for a record 19 seats. Despite this strength, all but one Jewish party has pledged not to work with them, creating a potential deadlock.

Third, the counting process is not finished. Between 430,000 and 480,000 absentee ballots from soldiers and diplomats remain uncounted. President Isaac Herzog expects official results next week. He will then consult with political factions to identify the leader with the best chance of forming a coalition. If the leaders fail to build a government, Israel will face another election. Herzog praised the 77.7% turnout, noting it was the highest in more than two decades. He called the high participation a badge of honor for Israeli society.

Both leaders claim victory. Eisenkot told supporters in Tel Aviv that the public spoke in favor of change. He stated, I will work with my partners to ensure that the people's decision is translated into a Zionist government. Netanyahu appeared at Likud headquarters in Jerusalem and declared a great majority for his right-wing bloc. He warned that it is forbidden to endanger Israel by forming a government that relies on anti-Zionist Arab parties. The left-wing Democrats party has pushed its partners to consider a coalition with Arab parties. Yair Golan wrote on social media that there is no future if the opposition does not stop being afraid. The Joint List chairman, Yousef Jabareen, said the party is ready to pave the way to oust the Netanyahu government through a genuine Jewish-Arab partnership.

This election is the first since the October 7, 2023 Hamas-led attacks and the subsequent wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. Campaign issues focused on security failures, military conduct, and judicial reforms. The outcome will determine whether Israel continues on its current political trajectory or shifts toward a new governing structure.