Israeli Election: Netanyahu Leads, But Falls Short of Coalition Threshold

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu holds the lead in the national election, but his bloc lacks the seats needed to form a government.

The race began with high expectations for a decisive outcome. Exit polls initially suggested a deadlock between the Prime Minister and his main rival, Gadi Eisenkot. As the actual tally progressed, the results shifted the balance of power. By 9:05 a.m. ET on October 28, more than 80 percent of the votes had been counted. At that point, Netanyahu’s Likud party stood as the largest single party. However, his broader right-wing coalition projected only 53 seats. That total is eight seats below the 61 required to command a majority in the Knesset.

The most dramatic shift in the legislature involved the Arab parties. These groups nearly doubled their representation to 19 seats. This increase complicates the path to government for both major blocs. Both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have previously ruled out forming coalitions that include Arab-led parties. This dynamic creates a mathematical hurdle that neither side has yet resolved.

The immediate next steps involve coalition negotiations and the counting of remaining ballots. Netanyahu stated that the final results are expected within 48 hours. He emphasized that Likud is the biggest party in Israel. He argued that a strong right-wing government is necessary and warned against relying on anti-Zionist Arab parties. His Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, noted that they are still waiting for soldiers' votes. He suggested the right bloc might grow as those ballots are processed.

Eisenkot’s centrist bloc, known as the change bloc, claims victory. The group includes parties led by Naftali Bennett, Yair Lapid, Avigdor Lieberman, and Yair Golan. Bennett said the parties are coordinating to form a government. He declared that the government in place since the October 2023 invasion would leave office. Eisenkot pointed to the high voter turnout of 77.7 percent, the highest since 1999, as evidence that the public voted for change. He pledged to establish a stable Zionist government.

Arab party leaders expressed confidence in their results. Mansour Abbas of Ra’am said he was interested in joining Eisenkot’s bloc, though he also spoke with officials from the right. Yousef Jabareen of the Joint List called the vote historic. He stated that the public gave its unequivocal vote of confidence to the Arab parties. Analysts noted that the high turnout among Arab citizens, who comprise about 20 percent of the population, was the biggest surprise of the day. Gideon Rahat of the Israel Democracy Institute suggested that incitement by government figures may have motivated this surge in voting.

Political scientists offered mixed assessments of the final outcome. Professor Jonathan Rynhold of Bar-Ilan University said Netanyahu performed better than pre-election polls predicted. However, he noted that Netanyahu cannibalized his own bloc by drawing votes away from other right-wing parties. Rynhold concluded that unless a massive change occurs, Netanyahu does not have a government. He added that if the opposition sticks to its refusal to partner with Arab parties, a second election may be necessary. Both blocs are now in contact with potential partners to bridge the seat gap.