Likud Split on Turnout as Nonprofit Spending Flows to Rival Camp Before Vote

Likud members are split on whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's party will win Monday's vote, with one day remaining before Israelis go to the polls. A Likud source said some members are confident while others worry about turnout operations in the camp opposed to Netanyahu.

Those expressing confidence point to internal polling run by Shlomo Filber. "We have some who are very sure of themselves, and some who are less so," the Likud source said. On Filber's forecasts, the source added: "Either Momo comes out a king, or Momo goes home. It's one or the other."

Party sources said organizations and nonprofits are spending large sums to boost turnout in the rival camp. The effort, which sources said was not directly funded by the parties, ran throughout the campaign and included social media campaigns, signs, field events, rides for Arab voters, and efforts to bring Israelis abroad back to vote. A Likud source described it as "the nonprofits affair on steroids," arguing these organizations create a support network for parties opposed to Netanyahu outside party-financing rules. Sources did not provide documentation for the funding amounts cited or for the claim that the activity broke the law.

Likud also criticized the Central Elections Committee, saying it focused on enforcing limits on campaign videos and public resources while paying too little attention to the organizations' activity. The party is meanwhile preparing a large-scale field operation for Election Day and working to keep right-wing votes from moving to smaller parties. Talks involving Rabbi Eli Sadan to persuade Brig.-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter, head of the People of Israel party, to exit the race failed. Rabbi Abergel's Ahi party did drop out after discussions with Likud, during which the parties also raised the possibility of legislation letting Ahi name a deputy minister. Likud is also courting supporters of the joint ticket of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha.

Israelis vote on October 27, a date set to allow Netanyahu's government to complete its full term. A survey published days before the vote found nearly one-third of Israeli voters were still undecided.