Midterm Elections: Democrats Favored for House, Senate Race Tight

Democrats are favored to take control of the House of Representatives and are within striking distance of the Senate as voters weigh economic hardship against party loyalty.

President Trump faces record low approval ratings after prices continued to rise following his 2024 election mandate to lower costs. The war with Iran and new tariffs have directly increased prices for goods and energy. A recent NPR, PBS News, and Marist poll found that only 15% of respondents said their financial situation has improved, while 38% said it has worsened.

Historical data indicates that the president's party typically loses seats in midterm elections. When a president's approval rating is below 50%, the average loss is 35 seats. Trump's approval is currently below that threshold. Democrats have also performed well in recent special elections and 2025 off-year contests, suggesting strong momentum for this cycle.

Structural factors may limit the size of Democratic gains. The Cook Political Report identifies about 30 fewer competitive districts this year than in 2018. Mid-decade redistricting gave Republicans an estimated 8-seat advantage, a benefit that could shrink if Latino voters in South Texas turn out in high numbers. Democrats are also facing internal challenges with disengaged voters who identify as democratic socialists, a group that is highly engaged against Trump but divided on strategy.

The election outcome will depend heavily on Republican turnout in key states. Trump has campaigned in red states to encourage his base to vote. Without strong turnout, a small Democratic Senate gain could expand to six or seven seats. If Democrats do not win the House, it would represent a major polling error for the current cycle.

Many races may not be decided on election night. Trump has already prepared for potential claims of election irregularities, a pattern seen after the 2020 election. A quarter of Republicans in recent polls said their candidate should likely reject the results if the election is close. The 2028 presidential race will begin almost immediately after these midterms, with candidates expected to announce early in January or February.