Budget report projects $900 million MTA deficit by 2030 absent staff cuts

The Metropolitan Transportation Authority faces a projected funding shortfall of nearly $900 million by 2030, according to a new analysis by the Citizens Budget Commission. The report attributes this gap to operating expenses that have outpaced fare revenue. To address the deficit, the commission recommends drastic reductions in the MTA workforce, specifically targeting positions it deems obsolete due to technological advancements.

A central recommendation is the elimination of the second crew member on subway trains. The commission argues that modern computerized signaling systems have reduced the operator's duties to a minimum. On lines such as the L and 7, which feature these automated systems, trains already run with full automation for announcements and speed control. The driver retains responsibility for opening and closing doors, but the operator primarily presses a button every 20 seconds to confirm alertness.

The financial impact of these changes is substantial. Removing operator positions on the L and 7 lines alone would save $36.5 million annually. If the MTA gradually eliminates the two-person crew requirement across the entire system, the agency could save $500 million per year. The commission estimates that its full suite of proposed reforms could generate $2.5 billion in annual savings.

Currently, the MTA is installing new signaling systems on the A, C, E, F, G, M, and R lines. These routes still require two crew members to operate trains. The commission notes that legally mandated staffing levels hinder modernization and prevent the agency from realizing potential economic efficiencies.

The timing of the report coincides with ongoing labor negotiations. Transport Workers Local 100 is currently negotiating a contract for its 40,000 subway and bus employees. The MTA board is scheduled to vote in December on a financial plan for 2027, which includes a 4 percent increase in fares and tolls.

John Samuelsen, president of the Transport Workers Union of the United States, characterized the recommendations as routine. He stated that similar proposals have been made for decades and that the current plan essentially shifts the burden of the MTA's deficits onto workers.

The commission acknowledges that the MTA has improved efficiency in recent years. The agency reported saving $576 million this year through operational efficiencies. However, the report asserts that without cuts to labor and healthcare costs, the agency will face a $300 million deficit in the coming year, which will expand to $900 million by 2030.

Additional recommendations include streamlining fare collection on commuter rail by inspecting tickets before boarding rather than during the ride. The commission also suggests cutting more than 1,000 jobs at Metro-North and the Long Island Rail Road, a move that could save $380 million annually. Furthermore, the report proposes increasing healthcare premiums for MTA retirees, which would generate an additional $315 million per year.