Gas prices hit voters before midterms

Oil prices have remained elevated for eight months following the start of the U.S. war with Iran.

The conflict, which began on Feb. 28 when U.S. and Israeli jets struck hundreds of targets in Iran, has driven up fuel costs in the United States. On Feb. 27, the day before the attacks, oil traded at $67 per barrel. By March 1, the price had jumped to $99 per barrel. That high level has persisted since then, according to data cited in the analysis.

The American Automobile Association reports that the average price of gasoline in the U.S. has climbed from $2.98 per gallon to $4.25 per gallon. Clifford Young, chair of Ipsos Public Affairs, notes that while voters typically focus on domestic issues, they are now connecting these higher pump prices to U.S. actions in the Middle East. Young stated that these foreign policy decisions have significantly impacted Trump's political base.

A Reuters Ipsos poll published this month found that 78 percent of respondents blame Trump's policies for rising prices. The Pew Research Center indicates that nearly two-thirds of Americans disapprove of the war. Disapproval has grown specifically among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. This shift is notable because the Republican base previously supported an America First agenda that included a promise to avoid foreign conflicts.

The administration initially predicted the war would last only four to six weeks. Aaron David Miller, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, described the conflict as a war of choice that underestimated the adversary's capacity to escalate. He noted that the U.S. failed to account for Iran's ability to target the Strait of Hormuz and Gulf states. Despite a strong military display, the U.S. has not ended the conflict.

Other foreign policy developments have occurred, including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and a ceasefire in Gaza. However, a Marist/NPR/PBS News poll found that only 5 percent of Americans rank foreign policy as their top issue. Thirty-four percent cited the cost of living as the primary factor driving their vote. This creates a convergence where the war in Iran directly affects domestic affordability.

Midterm elections are scheduled for next week. Current polls predict Democrats will take control of the House. The Senate race is too close to call, with Republicans holding a four-seat majority out of 33 contested seats. Voters face a choice in a cycle where the cost of gas serves as a direct measure of the economic impact of the ongoing war.