Democrats likely to take House as Trump faces first midterm test

President Donald Trump faces his first electoral test since returning to the White House, with voters weighing in on the cost of living, gasoline prices, immigration, and the war with Iran. All 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 36 governorships are up for grabs on Tuesday. Republicans currently hold a narrow House majority and a 53-47 Senate advantage, but the balance may shift sharply.

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten projects a strong Democratic performance. His statistical models indicate a 92% chance that Democrats will win a House majority and a 71% chance of taking the Senate. Enten’s numbers assign Democrats 237 House seats and a 52-48 Senate majority. He noted these are probabilistic forecasts, acknowledging that Republicans have previously outperformed polling expectations in several states.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll published last week shows Trump’s approval rating at 32%. Democrats hold a nine-point lead in the national congressional voting preference poll. The Cook Political Report rates seven Senate contests as toss-ups: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. A Democratic win in both chambers would allow Congress to block legislation, complicate budgets, and launch investigations into the administration.

The Michigan Senate race has become a flashpoint over Israel and antisemitism. Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed, a physician, accuses Israel of committing genocide in Gaza and supports restricting US military aid. Republican candidate Mike Rogers competes in the state that Trump narrowly won in 2024. Rep. Haley Stevens, who lost the Democratic primary to El-Sayed in August, announced her endorsement of Rogers two days before the election.

Stevens criticized a campaign advertisement linking US aid to Israel with the cost of living, calling it antisemitic. She demanded El-Sayed disavow the ad, leading to the cancellation of a planned unity event. Stevens stated in a video, "And that is why I am endorsing Mike Rogers for the United States Senate." Trump welcomed the move as evidence that Democrats were unwilling to support El-Sayed.

In a CBS 60 Minutes interview, El-Sayed affirmed Israel’s right to exist, conditional on shared understanding and equal rights for both peoples. He said, "If the Palestinian people and the Israeli people decide that they want two states for two peoples, and they decide that on equal terms, I support that." Polls from RealClearPolitics and the New York Times/Siena University show El-Sayed leading Rogers by roughly four points, though interviews occurred before Stevens’s endorsement.

Several progressive candidates are entering Congress from Democratic strongholds. Brad Lander, a liberal Zionist, defeated Dan Goldman in New York’s 10th District. Lander was briefly detained in the West Bank village of Nahalin while picking olives. He wrote, "The occupation is a crime under international law. Picking olives is not a crime under any law I know." Donavan McKinney and Darializa Avila Chevalier also won primaries in Michigan and New York, respectively, bringing new voices focused on US aid and military policy to Congress.